Where Are We Headed: A Scenario Analysis

Sunday, February 1st, 2009  |  Our Thought Leadership Research

The financial tsunami that originated in the US subprime market has now engulfed the entire global economy, and has sparked arguably the deepest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s. As the magnitude of the crisis became clearer, we became increasingly concerned about an abnormal period will lead to little or no growth for several years. This fear caused us to go back through history to find similar periods where there was a prolonged downturn. A scenario analysis was then performed to test how our asset allocation strategies would hold up under the abnormal conditions.